Goodwood Stakes features Lava Man

Horseracing Betting Lines

09/26/2007 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending champ Lava Man returns to face nine rivals in Saturday's $500,000 Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita Park. The winner of the race will gain automatic entry into the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic as part of the "Win and You're In" program.

Lava Man, owned by STD Racing and Jason Wood, can become the third horse to repeat as the winner of the Goodwood. Lord At War won in 1984 and 1985, and Pleasantly Perfect posted consecutive victories in 2002 and 2003.

Trained by Doug O'Neill, Lava Man will be ridden by Corey Nakatani from post seven. The six-year-old gelding is coming off a rare loss, he was sixth in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. This year he repeated as the winner of the Santa Anita Handicap and won his third straight Hollywood Gold Cup.

Lava Man has won 17 of 41 lifetime starts for more than $5.2 million.

Dennis O'Neill, brother and associate of Doug, recently indicated that Lava Man may also be entered in the Oak Tree Mile on turf next weekend. "Beyond that," Dennis said, "the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile definitely is a possibility. That race is worth $1 million, but if he were to run big, we'd have to think of the ($2 million) Breeders' Cup Mile. We've got all kinds of options."

Santa Anita Derby winner Tiago will face older horses for the first time in the 1 1/8 mile race. The three-year-old has drawn post four with Mike Smith set to ride. The pair are coming off a solid victory in the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park in July.

Owned by Mr. and Mrs. Jerry Moss, the colt has earned $815,270 in seven career starts with three wins. John Shirreffs trains Tiago who was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Belmont Stakes.

With Pacific Classic winner Student Council going in the Hawthorne Gold Cup on Saturday, the top finisher from the Del Mar event entered in the Goodwood is runner-up Awesome Gem. The four-year-old will start from post eight with David Flores in the saddle.

Awesome Gem is trained by Craig Dollase for owners West Point Stable and others. The gelding has won four of 13 lifetime starts for $531,360. Prior to the Pacific Classic he was second in the San Diego Handicap to the now deceased Sun Boat.

Here is the complete field for the 26th Goodwood Stakes in post position order: Arson Squad, Victor Espinoza; Hello Sunday, Brice Blanc; Lewis Michael, Eddie Baird; Tiago, Mike Smith; Porfido, Joel Rosario; Big Booster, Michael Baze; Lava Man, Corey Nakatani; Awesome Gem, David Flores; A. P. Xcellent, Jose Valdivia, Jr. and Wanna Runner, Tyler Baze.

The Goodwood has a scheduled post-time of 7:30 p.m. (et).

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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