Chargers rally for win, but Seahawks clinch division

Football Betting Lines

12/25/2006 - Seattle, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philip Rivers did it again, rebounding from a horrid start to lead the Chargers to a comeback victory, 20-17, over Seattle.

Despite the defeat, the Seahawks clinched their third straight NFC West title by virtue of San Francisco's 26-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals.

Rivers completed only 10-of-30 passes for 181 yards with two TDs, but he found Vincent Jackson for a 37-yard score with 29 seconds left that gave the Chargers the win, and kept San Diego (13-2) in line for home field advantage throughout the playoffs with their ninth straight win.

The Chargers are a game ahead of the 12-3 Ravens for the AFC's top seed, and can clinch home field with either a win next week against Arizona, or a Ravens loss to Buffalo. The Ravens hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers thanks to a 16-13 win in week four.

Jackson inexplicably broke wide open down the deep middle in the game's final minute, and Rivers hit him in stride in the end zone for the game-winning score. The reception capped a five-catch, 97-yard game for Jackson, who also had a touchdown catch in the second quarter.

"As soon as the defense made the stop we came back on the field we just said let's go and score," said Jackson.

San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson had another stellar game on the ground, gaining 123 yards on 22 carries, but failed to add to his NFL-record 31 touchdowns.

Matt Hasselbeck completed 17-of-37 passes for 189 yards, and threw two costly interceptions, both in San Diego territory. Shaun Alexander had 31 rushes for 140 yards and two scores, but Seattle (8-7) fell for the third straight week. Bobby Engram had four catches for 65 yards. and Deion Branch caught five balls for 61 yards in the loss for the Seahawks, who head to Tampa Bay next Sunday to conclude the regular season.

"They (the Chargers) were strong, fast, and big. They played with a lot of intensity," said Alexander, who added, "It's always nice to win your division."

Jackson's game-winner capped a 59-yard drive that only took 1:31, and left Seattle with little time on offense. A Shawne Merriman sack and three Hasselbeck incompletions sealed the win for the Chargers.

Merriman had three sacks on the day, giving him 15 1/2 on the season.

Seattle moved the ball well on its second drive, driving to the San Diego 34- yard line. The Seahawks couldn't capitalize, though, as Hasselbeck was intercepted by Clinton Hart at the San Diego 23.

Neither team managed much on offense for the rest of the first half, until Tomlinson broke through to set up the game's first score. Taking over at the San Diego 14-yard line, the MVP-candidate burst through the right side and streaked 62 yards down the field to the Seattle 24-yard line. Five plays later Rivers found Jackson for a nine-yard touchdown pass, giving the Chargers a 7-0 lead with 3:18 left in the first half.

The Seahawks appeared poised to answer on the ensuing possession, again driving into San Diego territory, moving to the 26-yard line with just over one minute left in the first half. Hasselbeck overthrew Engram deep over the middle, though, and Engram deflected the ball, which Hart was able to dive and haul in at the six-yard line for his second interception of the game.

A Nate Kaeding 46-yard field goal put the Chargers up 10-0 with 12:12 left in the third quarter.

Nate Burleson electrified the crowd with a 96-yard return of the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown that could have made it 10-7 early in the third quarter, but the play was called back on a hold by Bennie Joppru.

Starting at their own 48-yard line after pinning the Chargers deep in their own territory, the Seahawks were able to move the ball to the San Diego 33- yard line. The left side of the Seattle line blew open a gaping hole on the next play, and Alexander sprinted 33-yards virtually untouched for the touchdown, pulling Seattle to within 10-7 with 6:10 left in the third quarter.

A 40-yard field goal by Kaeding padded San Diego's lead to 13-7 with 2:24 left in the third.

San Diego punter Mike Scifres shanked a 30-yard punt on the first play of the fourth quarter, setting the Seahawks up at their own 45. Alexander busted through the middle for a nine-yard score, giving the Seahawks their first lead of the game, 14-13, with 12:58 left in the game.

Seattle extended to a 17-13 lead on a 33-yard field goal by Josh Brown with 5:07 left, capping a 12-play, 47-yard drive that drained 6:09 off of the clock.

Game Notes

Seattle cornerback Marcus Trufant was helped off of the field early in the third quarter with an injured right ankle. He was taken to the locker room for X-rays and did not return...This was the first time that Tomlinson could not find the end zone since week five against Pittsburgh, a 10-game streak...Hasselbeck was sacked six times.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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