Bonds may sit as Giants resume set with Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/21/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the MLB commissioner looking on, Barry Bonds will again try to inch closer to Hank Aaron's all-time home run record this afternoon when the San Francisco Giants play the middle portion of their three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.

One day removed from a two-homer performance against the Cubs on Thursday that gave Bonds 753 career long balls, just two shy of equaling Aaron's mark, the slugger went 0-for-4 in his team's series-opening 8-4 victory yesterday.

Also of note was the attendance of commissioner Bud Selig, who plans to attend the rest of the series in his hometown of Milwaukee. Whether or not Selig should or will be there when Bonds breaks Aaron's record has been a running subplot all season.

Not only is Milwaukee the home of Selig, but it is also where Aaron played from 1954-65 with the Milwaukee Braves and then in 1975-76 with the Brewers. Coincidentally, Aaron blasted the 755th homer of his career on July 20, 1976 in Milwaukee.

There is a chance that Bonds will not be in the starting lineup due to today's 3:55 p.m. (et) start time. The two teams squared off in a night contest yesterday and Bonds recently sat out the first three games of a four-game set with the Cubs to rest his legs.

Should he start though, Bonds will face a pitcher in Dave Bush who he is just 1-for-6 against lifetime with two strikeouts and no homers.

If Bonds doesn't play, the Giants will hope his teammates can pick up him like they did in the series opener on Friday. Guillermo Rodriguez knocked in three runs in yesterday's victory, while Dave Roberts had three hits and an RBI.

Noah Lowry (10-7) allowed four runs -- three earned -- in six innings of work to take the win, just the Giants second in nine games.

Jeff Suppan started for Milwaukee and yielded three runs over five innings for the Brewers, who have lost two of three. Carlos Villanueva (6-2) coughed up a Milwaukee lead late in the game to take the loss.

J.J. Hardy had two RBI as the Brewers fell to 5-3 on a 10-game homestand, but more importantly, have seen their lead in the National League Central dip to just 2 1/2 games over the second-place Cubs.

Bush toes the rubber for Milwaukee and is 5-1 over his last six starts. He is coming off consecutive victories, besting Washington behind seven innings of one-run ball on July 6 before downing Arizona on Monday. Against the Diamondbacks, Bush scattered three runs on three homers and five hits over six innings, improving to 8-7 on the year with a 4.84 earned run average.

The right-hander is 1-1 in three games (two starts) lifetime versus the Giants with a 3.71 ERA. All three of those outings came last year.

Tim Lincecum will try to extend his stretch of impressive outings when he starts for the Giants. The rookie hurler posted back-to-back wins on July 1 and 7, allowing just three runs over 13 total innings, and then received a no- decision in his first start after the All-Star break on July 16 versus Chicago.

Against the Cubs, Lincecum allowed only one run and two hits, but also walked five over 6 1/3 innings of his club's 3-2 setback. He struck out eight on the day, however, and is 4-2 with a 4.37 ERA this year.

The 23-year-old right-hander faced Milwaukee for the first time in his career on June 19 and was roughed up for six runs over four innings in the loss.

The Brewers had won seven straight -- all at home -- versus the Giants until yesterday's loss. That included a three-game sweep this year in Milwaukee from June 18-20.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.