Blues' playoff odds getting longer

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03/18/2010 -

ST. LOUIS (AP) -The St. Louis Blues are clinging to the hope of another miracle run to the playoffs. Time is running short, especially after the latest home-ice failure.

The Blues are seven points out of the final Western Conference playoff spot with only 13 games remaining. They've got three teams to leapfrog, having dropped to 11th place after Tuesday's 5-3 loss to the Colorado Avalanche.

And despite recent improvements under interim coach Davis Payne, they're still the NHL's worst team at home with a dismal 12-17-5 record.

Yet, St. Louis remains optimistic heading into Thursday's game at New York against the Rangers. The Blues finished with a 9-1-1 rush last spring, vaulting to sixth place and ending a three-year playoff drought with much the same cast, and the players believe there's no reason why they can't recapture that feeling.

``You never know,'' forward David Perron said. ``How many games we got left? If we win them all. ... We did that last year, and we're ready to do it again this year.''

It's an uphill task, given that five of the remaining seven games this month are against teams who are currently in playoff positions; the Rangers are only three points out of the final Eastern Conference spot. There are two games remaining against the Blackhawks, second in the West, and one against the Devils, fourth in the East.

Seven games are at home, which would be a positive for most teams. The Blues have 20 road wins, third-most in franchise history, but have blown too many leads at home.

They had shown signs of a home-ice turnaround before the Olympic break and an extended trip that followed, winning three in a row, before fizzling against the Avalanche.

Even with a sweep of the three remaining games against the Predators, seventh in the West and nine points ahead of the Blues, they'd need help. Goalie Chris Mason figured a 10-3 finish might be enough, but knew the best policy was not to look ahead.

``We're all aware of the points we have to make up,'' Mason said. ``We have to go in and focus and get points in our next game. Let's worry about New York.''

The Blues basically stood pat at the trade deadline, banking on a surge from underachievers like Brad Boyes and Paul Kariya to complement a young roster studded with recent first-round draft picks. Boyes has only 12 goals after totaling 76 the previous two seasons, and only two of Kariya's 15 goals have come at home.

Mason, the dominant factor in the Blues' finish last season, has been a lot more inconsistent.

Effort alone simply hasn't been enough lately, either. The Blues outshot Colorado 39-26 and dominated most of the third period without scoring, and had a hefty advantage in shots (38-20) in a loss at Minnesota on Sunday that wrapped up a 4-2 trip.

Plus, against Colorado they squandered a goal that matched the franchise record for fastest to start a game. Alex Steen put the Blues ahead at the eight-second mark, but it was their only lead.

``I don't know if you can script a better start than that,'' forward David Backes said.

Payne, elevated from Peoria of the AHL to replace Andy Murray in early January, refused to entertain doom and gloom talk. He's certain there'll be no trouble motivating players to chase a dream that appears to be slipping away.

``Not difficult in that regard,'' Payne said. ``Lots of fight and lots of time left for our hockey club.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Terrell Owens could return for Cowboys next game
A bye week will allow Terrell Owens broken hand to recover just in time for the next game the Dallas Cowboys are slated to play, according to reports. MySportsbook.com, an football sportsbook, has posted football betting lines on TO playing.

Owens broke the bone leading to his right ring finger Sunday night and had a plate surgically attached to it Monday. Although Owens' hand was swollen and aching Wednesday, Dallas Cowboys coach Bill Parcells said he's optimistic the receiver will be back at work next week and catching passes a week from Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.

MySportsbook.com online sportsbook listed Terrell Owens with odds of 7-2 (or $7 paid out for every $2 bet) to return back for the game against Tennessee.

"I certainly wouldn't rule it out now," Parcells said, referring to Terrell Owens immediate return. "Maybe five days from now I might, but I wouldn't rule it out now. ... I know we're looking to try to get him moving around pretty good in the next day or so. So we'll see where we are."

Owens did not speak with reporters Wednesday, but said Sunday he'd be out two to four weeks. A return against the Titans would be 13 days after the surgery. The Cowboys were listed as an early -7 1/2 favorite vs. the Tennessee Titans for Week 4 at MySportsbook.com

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