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07/28/2010 - Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their touchdown drought now a memory, the Montreal Alouettes turn their attention to the Toronto Argonauts as the two clubs, tied for the lead in the CFL's Eastern Division, tangle at McGill Stadium on Thursday night.
Even though Montreal finally put the brakes on an unhealthy run of being held out of the end zone, last week the team leaned heavily on the kicking game in order to get them over the hump. Damon Duval tied a career-high with seven field goals as he helped lead the Alouettes to a commanding 37-14 win over the visiting Hamilton Tiger-Cats last Thursday. Duval finished the night with 22 points as Montreal logged its third straight win after losing the season opener to Saskatchewan in overtime, 54-51.
Quarterback Anthony Calvillo, who came up lame late in the first half but returned to action, also had a strong outing as he converted 28-of-38 passes for 309 yards and a pair of touchdowns, getting his team into the end zone for the first time in six quarters when he struck in the fourth period.
As for the Argos, they tied their entire win total from a year ago (3-15) when they slipped by British Columbia on Friday night, 24-20, at home at the Rogers Centre. After starting slow and amassing just 10 points through the first three quarters, Toronto got a late boost from quarterback Cleo Lemon and, more importantly Byron Parker who returned an interception 41 yards for the go- ahead score with under two-and-a-half minutes remaining in regulation.
For Parker, the pick-six was the seventh of his career, leaving him one shy of the all-time CFL record.
Lemon, who absorbed a nasty hit from Solomon Elimimian but still managed to work his way back into the huddle, converted 19-of-28 passes for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was however, picked off twice and sacked three times in the victory. Running back Cory Boyd posted his third straight 100-yard rushing effort as he gained a game-high 148 yards on 19 carries, his 41-yard burst in the fourth quarter setting up a clutch TD pass from Lemon to Brandon Rideau.
Toronto has played far too many tight games in the early going and, after four weeks of action, are the only team in the league with a winning record that has allowed more points (108) than it has scored (103), and that certainly has to be a concern for the coaching staff as they prepare for a Montreal squad that has finally found an offense after hitting a dry spell.
Boyd has found his way through defenses for the most part, save for the season opener when he was held in check, but that was a game in which all of the Toronto offense was handled by Calgary to begin with. Considering this was an Argos unit that was expected to be the easiest target in the CFL this season, anything positive that goes on from here out should be considered a huge step in the right direction. Boyd currently leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 455 and is first overall in rushing with 431 yards on 66 carries, but he has just a single touchdown to his credit and that's not enough to keep the pressure off his quarterback.
Lemon is not going to be able to elude defenders much longer if his offensive line doesn't work harder to keep him upright. Of the quarterbacks who have started all four games thus far, Lemon is at the bottom of the list with his 59.1 percent accuracy and has one more interception (four) than touchdown (three). As a team, the Argos have the weakest passing attack in the league, while Calvillo and Co. again have the top efficiency rating at 101.7 at this stage.
If Lemon isn't careful this week, he's going to be exposed to a heavy dose of John Bowman who, after leading the team last season with 12 sacks, the most in a decade for a single Montreal performer, already has five quarterback takedowns so far this season. Thanks in part to Bowman, who was named the CFL Defensive Player of the Week after posting four sacks and two forced fumbles in the win over Hamilton, Montreal is easily at the top of the turnover list with a plus 10. No other team in the league has more than a plus-one in turnovers, with Toronto being one of those squads.
Obviously as he showed last week, Parker has the ability to change the complexion of a game with one quick burst to the end zone, but the Argos cannot be waiting on Parker to carry them into the win column yet again, especially with Calvillo finally getting his confidence and beginning to hit his marks as everyone expects of the reigning MVP.
In terms of the all-time series between these two clubs, taking into account regular season matchups dating back to 1946, the Alouettes own a mark of 101-80-3 at this juncture. The teams met three times in 2009 and Montreal claimed each and every meeting by double figures, the last of which was a 42-17 final on November 7 on the road. The Als have in fact won six straight encounters, the last victory for the Argos coming by a 16-9 score on October 20, 2007, which also happens to be the last time Toronto enjoyed a win streak of at least three games as well.
The teams are set to face each other three more times during 2010, with an August 14 date in Toronto and an October 29 meeting at the Roger Centre as well, not to mention a November 7 affair back in Montreal to close out the regular season.
The Argos have been getting by with smoke and mirrors the last few weeks and at some point an opponent is going to make them pay. Expect Montreal and Calvillo to call in that debt and take advantage of a weak Toronto offense on the way to taking the top spot in the division.
<< Twins hope to continue offensive onslaught in Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With their offense producing runs at an incredible rate,
the Minnesota Twins set their sights on a fifth straight victory as well as a
three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals when the American League Central
foes square o
<< Reds wrap up set in Milwaukee
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of an offensive slump last night, the
Cincinnati Reds hope to be swinging hot bats for a second straight day when
the National League Central co-leaders conclude a three-game series with the
Milwaukee Brewe
<< FBS Football: Agent-Gate 2010
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Throwing the word "Gate" behind subject
matter gives the impression of impropriety, and in turn draws a line in the
sand for those trying to decide what to make of an issue.
At SEC Football Media Day earli
<< Hudson tries to get Braves back on track in Washington
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the Atlanta Braves want to hold onto first place in the
National League East, they must find a way to consistently beat teams like the
Washington Nationals. Lucky for them, that is Tim Hudson's specialty.
Hudson will tr
Eskimos in search of elusive first win >>
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Off to their worst start in nearly half a
century, the Edmonton Eskimos again take aim at their first win of 2010 when
they entertain the British Columbia Lions on Friday night at Commonwealth
Stadium.
Edmont
Blue Jays try to add to Orioles' misery >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jose Bautista may still not be a familiar name among many
baseball fans, but the Baltimore Orioles know all too well how good the
Toronto Blue Jays slugger has been this season.
The major league's leading home run hitter i
Staal brothers visit 18U Worlds in Thunder Bay >>
Thunder Bay, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - How can one pack even more excitement
into nine days of baseball at the 2010 World Junior Baseball Championship?
Getting all four Staal brothers on the premises is a good start.
NHL stars Eric, Jordan,
A-Rod takes another crack at 600th home run in Cleveland >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Alex Rodriguez was supposed to take center stage in the
New York Yankees' game with the Cleveland Indians last night, but an unknown
rookie on the opposing team wound up being the star of the show.
After coming up empty on
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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